Third Saturday Seminar 2017-2018
Return of the Elders, Unleash your Wisdom
Session 5
“Global Risks”
Don’t (be) Panic(ked)
Saturday, 17 February 2018 9:30AM to 12:00 NOON (3d Saturday)
Room B-102, Lone Star College – Montgomery
3200 College Park Drive – Conroe, TX – 77384 – 936.273.7000
This is the Fifth Session of the Third Saturday Seminar for the 2017-18 Academic Year.
“Davos is where billionaires tell millionaires how the middle class feels.”
Jamie Dimon, quoted in The Washington post and The Week
out) It will introduce you to the breadth subjects and forward thinking of those affiliated with the forum. There are a lot of readable article available here.
However, what I would like to suggest we discuss is the “Global Risks Report 2018” to discuss in future sessions. Use the “Report Reader” to help spot highlights (This report prints out to 80 pages if you
A brief disclaimer: The use of the word “Risks” is well chosen. It can be misused to imply FEAR or PANIC. But, it is more useful to think of RISKS as “words to the wise.”
We modern humans are remarkably resilient. Many Americans survived Harvey, (and Irma); not willingly, but it wasn’t a choice, and in many cases it brought out the “hero” in friends and neighbors. Perhaps now we will recognize that the storms and weather events that we grew up with will likely be exceeded in size and frequency in the foreseeable future. Actually, many already knew this, but for various reasons those responsible were not able make or order the necessary improvements to infrastructure to prevent the damage that 51 inches of rain would create.
Supposedly plans are now made to start making such improvements in the Houston area. We can only hope so.
The modern human appeared on our plant about 200,000 years ago during the middle of the ice age before the last one. Some theorize that meeting the challenges of learning to survive during ice ages is what defined us and gave us our large brains.
But Climate is not the only thing that is changing. Just about every aspect our working and social lives and economy will be changing, driven by technological advances that many of us had never even thought about. There will be tremendous potential to improve not only our own lives but the lives of others. But there is no guarantee that humans will always make the right decisions to take advantage of every opportunity or technology on first try. In fact, we humans seem to be bound to learn by making mistakes. At our ages, we know the trick to surviving or better, prospering is to have the ability to recognize our mistakes or bad decisions before they turn deadly. Lets talk about it.
For those who like to read ahead, I suggest the following links to get started:
Main Report Reader page
Executive Summary
‘Fractures Fears and Failures’
For those graphically oriented, (That is, you like charts and diagrams)
As usual, our world is still in “interesting times” We will start the session with Current Events (Distractions)
As an experiment I have captured more text in the following articles than usual, to provide the reader with more context than usual at a glance.
However, don’t let this dissuade you from clicking on the parent source, to get even more context.
Think about this: How much wrong do we have to watch until we decide, that we have seen enough, and, decide something must be done
Our “Current Events segment will be mostly an open discussion of the wild events that continue since the newly sworn President Trump took up residence in the White House. Here are some ideas …
President Donald J. Trump will have been in office for 393 days by Saturday. There are 262 days to the next mid-term Congressional General election, 6 Nov 2018. The Primary Elections is 6 Mar 2018 in 17 days.
But you probably want to take advantage of Early Voting which starts 20 Feb and closes 3 Mar. Montgomery voters can get details and sample ballots here Harris Voters should go here
Government shutdown ends with Trump signature on spending bill
Nicole Gaudiano and Deirdre Shesgreen, USA TODAY Published 5:35 a.m. ET Feb. 9, 2018
The House vote followed Senate approval of the budget pact that was initially delayed by a protest from Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. The Senate bill passed
The budget agreement is attached to a six-week temporary funding bill needed to keep the government operating and to provide time to implement the budget pact.
The spending deal eliminates strict budget caps — set in 2011 to reduce the federal deficit — and paves the way for Congress to increase defense spending by $165 billion and hike domestic spending by $131 billion over the next two years. All told, the agreement, negotiated by congressional leaders and released late Wednesday night, provides for more than $400 billion in new spending — $300 billion above the caps and more than $100 billion in “emergency” funding that doesn’t count against the spending caps.
Inside the day that set in motion Michael Flynn’s guilty plea
By Michael Kranish December 8, 2017
On the day that set in motion former national security adviser Michael Flynn’s guilty plea and cooperation with the special counsel, President-elect Donald Trump was ensconced at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla., contending with the latest news from the Obama White House.
It was Dec. 29, 2016, and President Barack Obama had just imposed sanctions against Russia for its alleged interference in the election. Trump aides were trying to decide how to respond.
A very angry Kislyak, the Russian Ambassador called (gcg) Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, was on vacation in the Dominican Republic, so the president-elect was scheduled to be briefed by Flynn’s top deputy, Kathleen Troia “K.T.” McFarland.
A crucial chain of events unspooled over the day, according to court filings, congressional documents and people familiar with the interactions: Flynn and McFarland discussed by phone that Trump’s transition team did not want Russia to escalate the situation. McFarland told other Trump advisers Flynn was reaching out to Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Flynn called the ambassador, urging Moscow not to retaliate — and Russia later surprisingly agreed.
Whether Trump knew of the back channel with Kislyak and whether he urged Flynn to discuss the sanctions are questions that loom before special counsel Robert S. Mueller III as he investigates contacts between Russia and the Trump operation.
FBI director contradicts White House’s Porter timeline
By Jeremy Diamond, CNN, February 13, 2018, Source: CNN
FBI: Porter background check done in July 2017 01:56
(CNN)FBI Director Chris Wray upended the White House’s timeline about when it learned of domestic abuse allegations leveled against disgraced aide Rob Porter.
Wray testified Tuesday that the FBI repeatedly briefed the White House on its investigation into the aide last year, despite how the White House has presented their timeline.
The FBI submitted information to the White House on its background investigation into the former White House staff secretary that uncovered allegations of domestic abuse four times before those allegations became public, Wray told the Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday. The FBI director’s testimony raises fresh questions about why Porter remained in a senior position after the White House learned of the allegations of domestic abuse leveled by two of Porter’s ex-wives to the FBI — extending a controversy the White House has struggled to shake.
“I can’t get into the content of what was briefed to the White House … What I can tell you is that the FBI submitted a partial report on the investigation in question in March. And then a completed background investigation in late July. That soon thereafter, we received request for follow-up inquiry and we did the follow-up and provided that information in November and that we administratively closed the file in January,” Wray said in response to questions from Sen. Ron Wyden, a Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Wray added that the FBI “received some additional information” earlier this month and “passed that along as well.”
Wray’s timeline contradicts the White House’s accounting of when it learned of the allegations against Porter and the status of the FBI’s background check investigation to determine whether Porter could be granted a permanent security clearance.
‘Frankly, the United States is under attack’: DNI Coats sounds alarm over cyberthreats from Russia
Kevin Breuninger, February 13, 2018, CNBC
- DNI Dan Coats tells the Senate Intelligence Committee the U.S. is “under attack” on the cybersecurity front.
- Coats spoke alongside FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA Director Mike Pompeo and NSA Director Adm. Mike Rogers.
Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats framed global cybersecurity threats in stark terms on Tuesday, saying: “Frankly, the United States is under attack.”
Coats sounded the alarm in opening remarks at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats — annual testimony by intelligence chiefs about the greatest dangers to U.S. security.
He said the cybersecurity threats from state and nonstate entities are using technology to target “virtually every major action that takes place” and are one of his “greatest concerns and top priorities.”
Russia, China, Iran and North Korea pose the greatest global cyberthreats, but terrorists, criminal organizations and even individuals are engaging in cyberoperations as well, Coats said.
Subprime Auto Defaults Infect ABS Bond Pools Yet Sales Boom
Cecile Gutscher , 3 February 2018, 7:17 AM 2 February 2018, 4:51 AM
(Bloomberg) — A boom in sales, a pickup in defaults, and risk premiums keep on dropping.
It’s all happening in the market for subprime auto bonds, where loans to American consumers with some of the patchiest credit histories are packaged into securities to be sold to big investors. A decade after risky mortgage lending toppled the U.S. financial system, the securities have rarely been so popular. But the collateral behind the bonds is getting less safe: car-owners are increasingly falling behind on bigger loans with longer repayment terms made against depreciating assets.
“As used-car values drop a bit and delinquencies and roll rates begin to increase, the subprime sector will show significant underperformance and lack of decent liquidity,” said Don McConnell, senior portfolio manager at Bank of Montreal’s BMO Global Asset Management in Chicago, who helps manage $15 billion of taxable bonds. He’s reinvesting cash from maturing notes elsewhere.
Wall Street has rushed to sate investors’ hunger for subprime auto asset-backed securities with $3 billion worth of fresh supply so far in 2018, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data — almost double the $1.8 billion worth sold in the same period a year earlier. That’s despite warnings from Steve Eisman, featured in Michael Lewis’s book “The Big Short,” and Morgan Stanley in the past year.
CFPB ends payday lender lawsuit, leaves Trump voter feeling ‘betrayed’
By Steve Benen, 02/13/18 10:42 AM
One of the most controversial aspects of the nation’s finance industry is the prevalence of payday lenders, and the business practices that consumer advocates consider predatory. The Obama administration unveiled new safeguards in 2016, specifically intended to protect the public.
Last month, Donald Trump’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, led by Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, announced that those rules would effectively be ignored. CNBC reported yesterday on the latest effects of the Trump administration’s approach to the
The federal consumer watchdog has dropped a lawsuit against a lender that allegedly charged people up to 950 percent interest rates. It’s part of a move away from aggressive enforcement under interim director Mick Mulvaney that has angered career staff, NPR reported.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau confirmed to CNBC on Monday that it scrapped the suit against Golden Valley Lending in January. Mulvaney, who also heads the administration’s Office of Management and Budget,was appointed by President Donald Trump to lead the CFPB after Democrat Richard Cordray resigned.
Mulvaney – a harsh critic of the CFPB while serving in Congress – decided to scrap the legal action even though career officials wanted to move ahead with it, several CFPB staff members told NPR.
Note, NPR’s report makes clear that CFPB officials spent years building a case against Golden Valley Lending, and if the litigation had been successful, thousands of Americans stood to get some of their money back. Mulvaney didn’t care.
The report specifically highlighted a Michigan woman named Julie Bonenfant, who faced a financial crisis that led her to borrow $900 from Golden Valley Lending. She soon discovered that “her scheduled payments in less than 12 months will total $3,735, or more than four times what she borrowed.”
(Ms)Bonenfant told NPR, “To be honest I’m really mad, really pissed, because I actually voted for Trump. So knowing that his guy threw out this case that affects people like me, I feel kind of like stupid – just kind of like betrayed.”
Payday lenders couldn’t be more pleased. The New York Times recently reported that in April, “hundreds of members of the payday lending industry will head to Florida for their annual retreat featuring golf and networking at a plush resort just outside Miami. The resort just happens to be the Trump National Doral Golf Club.”
And whatever comes up … You can always get a quick Current Events briefing here
Bring your insights and your concerns to Third Saturday Seminar on Saturday and we will Share.
LSC-Montgomery
3200 College Park Drive, Conroe, TX 77384
ALL- Montgomery Links:
Academy for Lifelong Learning: LSC-Montgomery
Registration
Download a registration form and submit it to ALL:
· In person: LSC-Montgomery (3200 College Park Dr., Conroe, TX 77384), Continuing Education/ALL Office Building E (Room 205)
· Phone: 936.273.7446
Course Description: Third Saturday Seminars – Fall 2017- 3 Sessions
To refer to an ancient Chinese saying, “our world is in interesting times” and individual citizens are assaulted with a blinding array of propaganda from every conceivable source. The Third Saturday Seminar is about demystification of what is going on around us. Time will also be spent on current events.
Meets 9/16, 10/21, and 11/18 in B-102.
14972 Sa 9/16-11/18 9:30 a.m.-12 p.m. B 102 Gibby
Schedule for other ALL Courses
Downloadable Course book PDF
Montgomery Courses start on page 36.
You can attend ALL courses on all the other campuses by registering for global membership ($55).
ALL Website: http://www.lonestar.edu/all-montgomery.htm
Registration Form
“Some part of our being knows this (the universe) is where we came from. We long to return. And we can. Because the cosmos is also within us; We’re made of star-stuff. We are a way for the cosmos to know itself.” Carl Sagan