Third Saturday Seminar 2004-2005 – “We Dig Deeper Yet – The Challenges of Being Human” – Fourth Meeting
Curt Gibby – “Peak Oil and the Future”
Saturday December 11, 2004, 9:30 am – 12:00 noon, Room B-102, Montgomery College, 3200 College Park Drive, Conroe, TX 77384. See links to maps at bottom of this email. (Yes this is the second Saturday, but because Christmas is just around the corner, this time we meet on the second Saturday.)
The Program (the seminar will be in two approximately one hour sessions, as usual, with a break in between)
Not everyone agrees, but there are some professionals in the energy business who believe that the work of geophysicist M. King Hubbert who predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s is now predicting a peaking of World Energy Production in the mid 2000’s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert’s prediction came true in 1970.
Remember, everyone, has a point of view and a reason for it … Our challenge is to determine what, if anything, to do about what is presented to us. Most us know from experience that change, if not inevitable, is pretty likely, and change, will likely have some effect on on all of us.This might seem a little far afield of “The Challenges of Being Human,” but it really is about human (our) response to our world as it changes.
Unlike the last go around which was mis-reported sensationally, the predicted likely scenario is not an abrupt termination in the delivery of Oil and Gas, but in the gradually declining production of them and increased competition for them as other large nations develop their economies. What’s to be done and who “should” do it? We all say we should learn from history, but do we really learn or is the necessary adaptation forced on all of us. (I am told the gash in the side of the Titanic had a area of only 6 square feet, not very much, you’d think, for an “unsinkable” ship.)
What you see below is the stuff I have found that pertains — I haven’t read it all, nor do I expect you to. I think you will find Matt Simmons’ presentation that at the top of the list the quickest introduction into the subject matter. There are some other “slide presentations” which are probably the easiest way to digest a lot of information quickly. Then for those who like to figure stuff out for yourself you will find access to a lot of data accessible via the following links
Matt Simmons Presentation: Plan B: What Happens After Peak Oil?
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/SEG-TLE%20Forum.pdf
More Matt Simmons Presentations
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
Matt Simmons Home Page
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/default.asp
Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 slide pack , ppt , 7726KB
The URL buried in the link won’t fit on the page, but click on it and it will take to to a lot of good information in a powerpoint slide show
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
http://www.bp.com/subsection.do?categoryId=95&contentId=2006480
Full BP report and history series-Down loadable- You can download Excel Spread sheets of the data if you so desire.
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=2012411&contentId=2018340
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development – 15 PowerPoint slides.
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/29/23/2397890.ppt
PDF Slides of Winning the Oil Endgame Presentation
http://www.oilendgame.org/pdfs/WtOEg_Presentation.pdf
Winning the Oil Endgame (you can download all or parts of it)
http://www.oilendgame.org/SiteMap.html
Peak Oil Home Page – THE ASSOCIATION FOR
THE STUDY OF PEAK OIL&GAS
http://www.peakoil.net
Updating the Depletion Model (Tabular Information)
http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/Default.htm
Regular Oil Production – Tabular data
http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/WORLD_SUMMARY_html.htm
Resource Based Production Forecast – Tabular Data
http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/RESOURCE_BASED_PRODUCTION_FORECAST_html.htm
The End of Suburbia (Video) – Previews
http://www.endofsuburbia.com/previews.htm
International Petroleum Information 2003 >From The Department of Energy
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html
International Energy Annual 2002 From The Department of Energy
http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/contents.html
Project For The New American Century
http://newamericancentury.org/
PNAC Iraq/ Middle East
http://newamericancentury.org/iraqmiddleeast.htm
Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century
http://newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf
Nuclear Policy Institute http:www.nuclearpolicy.org
www.nuclearpolicy.org/Documents/RootsofUSDefensePolicy.pdf
Current Events: (We always talk about current events to start out)
What about Iraq, Medical Coverage, Employment, Inflation, Terrorism, etc. etc. Is everybody (still) happy? I’ve already had a couple of cartoon submitted.
You may still want to use some of these links:
Natural Resources Defense Council – Many of the fallen regulations effect the planet and it’s resources. They will have something to say about renewable energy. This may be a challenge because many of these are a matter of personal opinion, The science involved is often disputed. http://www.nrdc.org/bushrecord/default.asp
DemocracyNow.org Amy Goodman. A national asset. I may not always agree with her, but I have tremendous respect for her as a persistent seeker of the truth and a tremendously able, courageous and energetic journalist. Listen to her daily at 9:00 am on KPFT FM 90.1 and catch streaming video and listen to archives or read transcripts at http:www.democracynow.org
For some of the best, timely, pertinent information for today’s world, watch Bill Moyer’s NOW on PBS at 9:00 pm on Fridays and if you miss it go to: http://www.pbs.org/now/ for discussion topics, transcripts, enrichment materials. Bill Moyers will leave the show after the election.
And if you really want to get your mind opened or sharpened try The Daily Show on Comedy Central. (Ch 59 on my cable) the current day’s show comes on at 10:00 pm and is usually replayed at 6:00 pm the following day. Sometimes a little bit of irreverence will help bring home the significance of an issue or person. http://www.comedycentral.com/tv_shows/thedailyshowwithjonstewart/
Living on Earth a radio show that you can hear Saturday Mornings on NPR FM 88.7 . Usually gives rational treatment of environmental things that really and truly should concern us. Their home page is http://www.loe.org
About The Third Saturday Seminar
Started in January 2000, The Third Saturday Seminar is now sponsored by the Academy of Lifelong Learning (ALL) Program at Montgomery College. More on the ALL program at: http://www.montgomery-college.com/all/
For information about Montgomery College: http://wwwmc.nhmccd.edu
Parking: May I suggest that you park in the “West Parking Area” , as that parking area is closer to Building B. Ignore the “Instructors Only” signs on the parking, That only applies on week days.
Maps of MC Campus and directions http://wwwmc.nhmccd.edu/students/campus/maps.html
Looking forward to seeing you there. (And please let me know if anything in this announcement doesn’t make sense. It’s almost mid-night and as you know sometimes I overlook some obvious things)
Best regards,
Curt Gibby
Spring, TX
gcgconsult (at) n-star.com