Third Saturday Seminar 2010-2011
Return of the Elders, Unleash your Wisdom
 Session 06

This notice prints out to about 5 pages. Where you see blue text, it’s an Internet Link to take you to more detailed information.  I can’t guarantee accuracy, but I will say that to my knowledge the information I link to is consistent with my understanding of things.

It was 150 Years ago today that the provisional Confederate States forces began it’s bombardment of Fort Sumpter, South Carolina.  There were no casualties that day, but it started our Civil War, or as some referred to it the War Between the States.  And, the massive casualties would soon follow. Lives would lost and ruined.  Slaves would be declared free, but some of the wounds still have yet to heal in spite the great progress that has been made by sincere efforts of most Americans.

I made the following comment in last two month’s meeting notices.  It still seems relevant. Note that I use the word ““Democracy“ which is sacred to Western Cultures.  As you read the following, when you see, ““Democracy“ substitute “Justice”.”  “Justice“  is scared in the Arab Culture.  Actually Justice and Democracy might be thought of as two sides of the same coin.

Well, it appears that this chain of events is still rocking the North Africa and the Middle East.  If this democracy (justice) thing can find a way to actually happen, this could make al Qaida irrelevant (redundant?), and confuse everybody else’s relationships.  For instance, Israel’s.  As the people in each country break loose of their despotic governments, perhaps, much in the same way as the signers of our Declaration of Independence and Our Constitution and it’s Bill of Rights, purposely leave behind the feudal baggage of the “Old Country”.

Even though the potential continuous spread of democracy and civil rights (justice) may make the whole world a nicer place, nothing at this point is certain.  There is a lot to do.  A lot of groups who claim to have similar interests, will find they all have different opinions of how to achieve them.  Will the need to negotiate compromise cool the flame of freedom?  We all need to care, and, if it’s (probably) not al Qaida, there will be similar forces who will try disrupt the peace (and justice) that needs to grow. (For instance arms merchants.)

We shall take a look at what turned a simmering pot into a rolling boil.

From the Arab World …

A slap that restored to the Arabs their dignity

Fadia Hamdi  is the policewoman in Sidi Bouzid in southern Tunisia who slapped and spat on  Mohammed Bou Azizia, a street vendor for refusing to moving his vegetable cart, which he used to support his mother, brother and sisters without knowing that that slap would awake the dignity of not less 100 million Arab from the Gulf to ocean. No one would have imagined that this slap would result in changing geopolitics of a whole region like that bringing down regimes that stayed for decades and decades! Mohammed Bouazizia was a young unemployed university graduate, who set himself on fire in frustration on December 17. He died while being treated in a hospital near Tunis, the capital, on January 5
We saw the Arab revolutions coming
Al Jazeera’s director general asks why, when Al Jazeera saw the uprisings coming, the West did not.
Wadah Khanfar english.aljazeera.net 1/3/11

…
US and European allies, supporters and business partners of the Arab regimes persistently preferred to deal with leaders who were entirely unrepresentative of the new generation. They were detached from the emerging reality and had no way to engage with the social forces that now matter. It is the growing periphery of the Arab world – the masses at its margins, not its feeble and decaying centre – that is shaping the future of the region.

These unfolding transformations have been less of a surprise for us at Al Jazeera. Since our launch nearly 15 years ago, we have chosen to keep close to the Arab street, gauging its pulse and reflecting its aspirations. It was clear to us that a revolution was in the making, and it was happening far from the gaze of a tame and superficial establishment media that allied itself with the powerful centre – on the assumption that the centre is always safer and more important. Many media outlets in the region failed to recognise what was happening among the Arab grass roots. Keen to conduct interviews with high-level officials and ever willing to cover repetitious news conferences, they remained oblivious to what was happening on the ground.
…

Wadah Khanfar is director general of the Al Jazeera network. This article first appeared in The Washington Post.
Read more here

From the PBS NewsHour:
Tunisian Fruit Seller’s Death Helped Unleash Arab World Turmoil
AIR DATE: April 5, 2011, Transcript and video (1:49)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Finally tonight, the fallout from the Arab revolts on the rest of the world. Margaret Warner reports.

MARGARET WARNER: The demonstrations that erupted in Tunisia last December, sparking a wider revolt throughout the Arab world, were touched off by a young fruit seller who set himself on fire after being harassed by police.

His story and a photo of his charred body in a hospital bed spread on the Internet. Protests erupted, and in less than a month, on January 14, Tunisia’s strongman president, Zine Ben Ali, had resigned.

Since then, with an assist from social media, Arabs elsewhere have taken to the streets demanding more dignity, less corruption and democratic and economic reforms. In Egypt in late January, activists massed by the tens of thousands in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. After 18 days of protests and a push from his own army, longtime Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down.

Demonstrations also broke out in Yemen, Libya, Bahrain and Syria, and more modestly, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The Obama administration has responded by calling on autocratic Arab leaders to make reforms and avoid violence. But in Libya last month, the U.S. and a NATO coalition under a U.N. resolution, intervened militarily to protect civilians and support rebels fighting President Moammar Gadhafi’s forces.

There’s been some apparent reaction in other parts of the world as well, most notably in China. The government has cracked down further on dissent and on any stirrings on the streets or the Internet of a Chinese version of the Arab spring.

Read more here

Also from PBS – same segment April 5, 2011
‘Huge Step up for Democracy’ in Arab World Revolts: Who’s Next?

MARGARET WARNER: And how will these Arab revolts affect the wider world?

For that, we turn to Jessica Mathews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — she served in the Carter and Clinton administrations; Romesh Ratnesar, a columnist for “Time” magazine and fellow at the New America Foundation — he is the author of “Tear Down This Wall”; and Mark Malloch Brown, a former deputy secretary-general of the United Nations and a minister in the last British government. His new book is “The Unfinished Global Revolution.”
Read more here

Some of you may remember:
10/17/09 Session 2 Dealing with Dictatorships  – and the book From Dictatorship to Democracy by Gene Sharp (101 pages. Free download as PDF)

Current Events: As usual we will start out with current events

Remeber the session we did on Black Swans?  Well, it seems that “black swans” are on the move big time and are becoming a way of life. Meaning what’s is now becoming recognized as “The Arab Revolution” has over a 350 million players interacting on the playing field.  And a number of interlopers.  What are the odds?

    North Africa and the Middle East, One war ending, one sustaining and a brand new no-fly zone.  Ok, NATO(lite) is in charge.  What’s the Plan, What’s the goal? Regime change? Who’s in charge?  Is it working? 

    Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan ,  The Japanese continue to deal with the aftermath and serious aftershocks.  The nuclear emergency is now “Class 7,” the highest category in the dictionary at the moment. One souce says this isn’t the worst disaster, but it’s the most complex. 

    Then there is the question of the future of nuclear power. The Fukushima Reactors are of the boiling water (BWR) type.  They have some advantages but higher risks of contamination than Pressurized Water Reactors such as those at the South Texas Project (90 miles south of us)  Wikipedia gives a quick education about the boiling water reactors, and a sortable list.

    Did you follow the “Will or won’t the government shut down” drama?  Well, all the politicians have declared victory.  What about We The People?  Let’s see, 38 Billions of dollars is 1.09 % of 3.5 Trillion Dollars in the budget and .27 % of the 14 Trillion Dollar national debt.

    Paul Ryan’s says his budget will reduce spending by $6.2 trillion over the next decade and reduce the deficit by $4.4 trillion.  It also cuts the top income tax rate by nearly a third, from 35 percent to 25 percent. From the Huffington post: Paul Ryan’s Budget Proposal: Analysis of the Numbers [UPDATE]
The article has a link to the whole 73 page Ryan proposal.  (No I have not read it.  If one of you does, see if you can put any details together and would we still have a soul.)

    For your reference here is Obama’s 2011 Budget Proposal: How It’s Spent   from the New York Times, and oh, it totals 3.69 Trillions.  Sweep your cursor over the blocks so see more detail.  Note that the social security system is “off-budget” as it should be. Even tough politicians and pundits insist on referring to Social Security as an “Entitlement.” Is not an entitlement at all, it is an insurance program into which you and your employer pay a significant amount (15.3% i.e. 7.65% x 2) of your income. Up until now, SS has collected a surplus and loaned (at interest) the rest to the General Fund.   I beleive that this is no longer the case and the General Fund will now have to start returning the money it borrowed for SS to meet it’s obligations. (Better keep and eye on them)

Extra-credit exercise:  Fire up a spreadsheet on your computer and see if is you can work up a BUSINESS PLAN for the United States of America, that is sort of a bue.dget where you take the country’s income, pay the country’s expenses including making all the debt payments on time, and see how long it takes to create a surplus.

The Lone  Star College Montgomery ALL Program

A.L.L. Classes

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Third Saturday Seminar
To refer to an ancient Chinese saying, our world is in interesting times and individual citizens are assaulted with a blinding array of propaganda from every conceivable source. The Third Saturday Seminar is about demystification of what is going on around us.  Time will also be spent on current events. (Class will meet on    4/16, 5/21. Note that March date was adjusted for Spring Break). 5 Sessions. No fee.
Lone Star College -Montgomery B102
16637 Sa 2/19 – 5/21 9:30 a.m. – Noon


Come, join the discussion! Let’s see if there is hope!

Public Service Announcements:

1.  The old Coffee Pot is dead

    Sometimes a carry box of coffee shows up but nothing is organized. There are three excellent sources of very good coffee not far the college.

        *     Starbucks on the north side of Hwy 242 just east of Woodforest Bank.
        *     Caffe’ Diem and/or Brooklyn Cafe, both on the south side in the College Park Plaza shopping center.
        *     McDonald’s on the south side east of the shopping center and next to the Tradition Bank.

    I will continue to bring donuts.

See you Saturday and Don’t Panic,


Curt Gibby
Director, Third Saturday Seminar
P. O Box 73207
Houston, Tx 77273

Mobile

http://northstarinst.org/TSS/