“Black Swan”

As it turns out, The Third Saturday and the ALL Spring Open House both occur this coming Saturday.  So the Third Saturday will offer a shorter program so that we can participate in both.  I know a number of  our members have responsibilities at the Open House.

As to our subject, one of our members gave me a note suggesting that I listen to a Charlie Rose Interview of a fellow named Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.) who has some interesting things to say about the phenomena that leaders have a lack of imagination that enables them ignore signs of an impending crisis that in retrospect were obvious to the most casual observer.

I have always wondered why political and corporate leaders with great responsibility and great authority mostly fall short of the most reasonable expectations, and worse, seem powerless to avoid crises, and often misuse their great authority in ways that exacerbate or create crises.

The government of our democratic republic was brilliantly designed so that the ultimate power was retained by the citizens, who gave responsibility and authority to the three branches of government, the Congress to make policy and control the purse strings, the Executive you provide governance, that is mange the departments and agencies of government in carrying out the the policies authorized and funded by the Congress, and the Supreme Court to settle arguments in a “Rock, Paper, Scissors” type of relationship we call “Balance of Powers” intended to facilitate the legitimate functions of government while preserving the Power and Rights of the Citizens to lawfully “Pursue Happiness” without government supervision or interference.

Yet we find ourselves saddled with a government that has presumed awesome authority over our lives and welfare, and instead of enhancing our security, persists in finding things for us to fear and allowing crises to happen and then using those crises as justification for military adventures and unbridled fiscal irresponsibility wasting our core resources, leaving us weakened.

Is this intentional? As much as it looks like a premeditated evil conspiracy, it probably isn’t.  Although, this brings out opportunists who see the potential to profit  in any crisis while our  government keeps finding new ways to mismanage the situation, while blaming the crisis, they in effect caused our facilitated.

And the most curious thing is, Why do we, the people let this happen.  Some of us even applaud the “heroic” efforts of government officials as they “courageously” make the “hard decisions” to save the economy by systematically destroying it. (Isn’t it strange they never show us the arithmetic that makes their decisions so instantly obvious to them and eternally painful to the rest of us.

Anyway, I think Mr Taleb has some important insight to offer us.

Saturday we will watch then discuss two brief vidoes from the internet.  “A conversation about economics with Nassim Nicholas Taleb” and “Economists Explain Why Hints of the Economic Crisis Eluded Them” (Paul Soloman).  The links to them are marked with “*” in the following list and I encourage you to watch at least these two if you can before the session.

If you are curious about Taleb check out, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb or his own website http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/

For those who like to read ahead: (If it’s in blue you can click it to watch, read or listen)

Now, Week of 12.26.08
Credit and Credibility
What role did the credit rating agencies play in the current economic crisis? This week, a former managing director at Standard & Poor’s speaks out on U.S. television for the first time about how he was pressured to compromise standards in a push for profits. 25 minute video
http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/446/index.html
http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/446/video.html

*A conversation about economics with Nassim Nicholas Taleb
on Wednesday, December 3, 2008
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9713

A conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb
on Tuesday, August 7, 2007
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/8635

*Economists Explain Why Hints of the Economic Crisis Eluded Them
Paul Solomon, Originally Aired: January 9, 2009
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june09/economists_01-09.html

Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings?
60 Minutes: Speculation Affected Oil Price Swings More Than Supply And Demand
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/08/60minutes/main4707770.shtml

Check out the last part of this discussion, “Panetta a good choice for CIA”  
Shields and Brooks Mull Obama’s Intel Picks, Stimulus Plan
Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks assess the week’s news, including Obama’s new intelligence team and his push to get a new economic stimulus package through Congress.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june09/sbobama_01-09.html

Public Service Announcements
The Academy for Lifelong Learning Political Affairs lecture series begins in March and should be quite interesting this year. If you’ve ever wondered what the taxing entities on your tax bill do, here is your opportunity to ask the experts.While this is an ALL program, a limited number of guest passes are available by contact me at 936.273.7259 or email at Donna.S.Burns@lonestar.edu

Jim Post as Mark Twain, Feb 1st, 2009, 1:00pm Sunday Matinee, Millbend Coffeehouse at Northwoods UU Church, 1370 N. Millbend,  The Woodlands, Texas.  Jim Post, who has been performing as Mark Twain  for the past several years, will be performing his highly acclaimed show, “Mark Twain and the Laughing River.”  The show features dialogue as Mark Twain, and Post’s new, original songs, written in his persona as Twain.  Because Mark Twain also sang with a beautiful tenor voice, played banjo, piano, and guitar, and loved to show off at parties, Post is a natural personification of this 19th Century author, humorist and folk icon.  Call (281) 350-3052 or (936) 273-0610 goto http://millbend.org/

Current Events: (It’s late.)

 
“Transition to Power” as the media calls it.  Getting ready for the coronation!  Washington is just dripping in symbolism!  Obama (and the Office of the President -Elect) have done such a good job of filling most of the key political appointments to govevernment position and that it appears that the usual honeymoon has even lasted to the inauguration.  Some of his appointees have already grown warts, and the Congress has already decided they can improve his stimulus plan and obstruct his executing Part deux of the Paulson/Bush.  Seems that Congress has gone radical and wants an accounting of wher the money is going and why this time!  BRAVO Congress.  They’ll probably cave, they always do.  Hope I’m wrong.

And in Israel & Palestine, Babies, Women, Children, Innocents are being killed in Gaza.  (They were told to distance themselves from the terrorists but how do you do that when nobody is allowed to leave Gaza?  The Innocents are “concentrated” with the terrorists.  I have listened to all the debate justifying and blaming.  None justifies killing babies and children.   I cannot believe that this is the will of the real people of Palestine or the real people of Israel.  How is it that those who become “leaders” are so politically and diplomatically incompetent and ethically and  morally bankrupt that they have no aversion to harming the Innocents.  We can do better, but only if all the people say, “Enough.” 

 Lily Tomlin Rules! “No matter how cynical you get it’s impossible to keep up”.

In the meantime, please, “DON’T (be) PANIC(ed)!”

Economic anomalies such as recessions and depressions are like a bad cold. You get over them when you get over them.  All you can do is try to keep the patient comfortable.  All the medications or government interference has no effect at all on the cold or the anomalies, but it does raise the cost to the patient without shortening the convalescence, perhaps often prolonging it.

About The Third Saturday Seminar:
This is the 5th meeting of the Third Saturday Seminar for the 2008-2009 season. We run from September to June.
Started in January 2000, We are about personal empowerment through demystification. Our subject matter is broad but it always tries to be about understanding ourselves and others better; and, having fun.

The Third Saturday Seminar (TSS) is sponsored by the Academy of Lifelong Learning (ALL) Program at Lone Star College – Montgomery http://montgomery.lonestar.edu/25959/

There is no fee for ALL members to attend TSS. You can find the ALL Schedule at: http://montgomery.lonestar.edu/142962.pdf

Course Information –  Meets mostly on Third Saturdays. I have been assured that we will meet every time in B-102 during the spring

For information about Lone Star College Montgomery : http://montgomery.lonestar.edu/

Maps:
http://montgomery.lonestar.edu/14972/
http://montgomery.lonestar.edu/14970/
http://map-it.woodstock.edu/map_pdf/B_floor_1.pdf

As usual, if anything in this notice doesn’t work or make sense (It is midnight somewhere), please let me know so I can warn the others.   If the spelling and syntax seems more fractured than usual, chalk it up to the fact I am (still) breaking in a new laptop computer (or, perhaps it’s the other way around.) Down with Vista!! Bill Gates is a nebbish!

Hope to see you Saturday.

Best regards,

Curt Gibby
Spring, TX
281-353-4350 (cell-)
Fax: 281-288-8230
gcgconsult@n-star.com
http://www.northstarinst.org/TSS/ (REALLY OUT OF DATE)